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Report 2

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  1. Summary
  2. The videos
  3. Outcomes
  4. Subgroups
  5. What it can and cannot establish

October 2026

Open Primaries Message Test

Wave 1|Ballot support, comprehension and media trust

Summary

W1Wave 1
PopulationRespondents who completed the test, weighted to Massachusetts general adults (18+)
FieldedOctober 26–29, 2026
Sample2,503 respondents · 2,503 weighted
Videosfour treatment videos plus placebo
ControlPlacebo video · 497 weighted
Threshold90% criterion (two-sided two-proportion test)

One of four treatment videos showed detectable ballot support differences

Ballot support lift vs own-wave placebo, percentage pointsShared 0 to +15 scale · not ranks
WaveCreative% Yes, liftBallot statusComprehension lift
W1Why independents are locked out — Gaby
+12.7Detectable+12.6 pp · detectable
W1Why independents are locked out — MSNOW
+5.2Inconclusive+4.6 pp · inconclusive
W1Why independents are locked out (21 s)
+3.1Inconclusive+11.4 pp · detectable
W1Why independents are locked out (41 s)
+1.4Inconclusive+7 pp · detectable
0+5+10+15
  • Detectable — meets the 90% criterion (two-sided two-proportion test) vs placebo
  • Inconclusive — not detected; not proof of zero effect

No confidence intervals are shown: none are in the data.

W1Wave 1

One of four videos showed detectable ballot support differences; three showed detectable comprehension differences

Wave 1: three of four videos showed detectable comprehension differences

  1. 1Wave 1: three of four videos detectable.Why independents are locked out — Gaby, Why independents are locked out (21 s) and Why independents are locked out (41 s).

The videos

W1Wave 1four videos
46 s

01 · Why independents are locked out — Gaby

501 actual respondents

Ballot support61.4%
vs 48.7% placebo · +12.7 ppDetectable
Comprehension56.3%
vs 43.7% placebo · +12.6 ppDetectable
n = 485 weighted
39 s

02 · Why independents are locked out — MSNOW

501 actual respondents

Ballot support53.9%
vs 48.7% placebo · +5.2 ppInconclusive
Comprehension48.3%
vs 43.7% placebo · +4.6 ppInconclusive
n = 518 weighted
21 s

03 · Why independents are locked out (21 s)

500 actual respondents

Ballot support51.9%
vs 48.7% placebo · +3.1 ppInconclusive
Comprehension55.2%
vs 43.7% placebo · +11.4 ppDetectable
n = 486 weighted
41 s

04 · Why independents are locked out (41 s)

500 actual respondents

Ballot support50.2%
vs 48.7% placebo · +1.4 ppInconclusive
Comprehension50.7%
vs 43.7% placebo · +7 ppDetectable
n = 518 weighted

Results are versus placebo. A difference between two point estimates does not establish a statistically significant head-to-head difference.

Outcomes

Ballot support

The weighted percentage selecting Yes, compared with the placebo arm.

Comprehension

The weighted percentage choosing the correct description, compared with the placebo arm.
W1Wave 1
Lift versus own-wave placebo, percentage pointsSame 0 to +15 scale on both outcomes · placebo = 0
VideoBallot supportComprehension
Why independents are locked out — Gaby
+12.7 pp · detectable61.4% vs 48.7%
+12.6 pp · detectable56.3% vs 43.7%
Why independents are locked out — MSNOW
+5.2 pp · inconclusive53.9% vs 48.7%
+4.6 pp · inconclusive48.3% vs 43.7%
Why independents are locked out (21 s)
+3.1 pp · inconclusive51.9% vs 48.7%
+11.4 pp · detectable55.2% vs 43.7%
Why independents are locked out (41 s)
+1.4 pp · inconclusive50.2% vs 48.7%
+7 pp · detectable50.7% vs 43.7%
0+5+10+15
0+5+10+15
Wave 1 · Ballot support, % level0–100% scale · dashed line = placebo level (48.7%)
Placebo (reference)48.7%Control arm
Why independents are locked out — Gaby61.4%+12.7 pp · detectable
Why independents are locked out — MSNOW53.9%+5.2 pp · inconclusive
Why independents are locked out (21 s)51.9%+3.1 pp · inconclusive
Why independents are locked out (41 s)50.2%+1.4 pp · inconclusive
0%25%50%75%100%
Wave 1 · Comprehension, % level0–100% scale · dashed line = placebo level (43.7%)
Placebo (reference)43.7%Control arm
Why independents are locked out — Gaby56.3%+12.6 pp · detectable
Why independents are locked out — MSNOW48.3%+4.6 pp · inconclusive
Why independents are locked out (21 s)55.2%+11.4 pp · detectable
Why independents are locked out (41 s)50.7%+7 pp · detectable
0%25%50%75%100%

Which of the following best describes the main change the measure would make?

  • Each party would keep its own primary, but independent voters could choose one to vote in
  • CorrectAll candidates would run in one primary, and the two with the most votes overall would advance
  • Primaries would be eliminated, and every candidate would go straight to the general election
  • General elections would be decided by ranked choice voting

The 90% criterion (two-sided two-proportion test) is a statistical decision rule. It does not mean there is a 90% chance any particular person changed their mind.

Subgroups

W1Wave 1
Bars are levels — the % selecting Yes in one subgroup and arm — not lifts. Significant vs placebo inside that subgroup (90% criterion (two-sided two-proportion test)) Not marked Hatched, italic = source small-sample flag Placebo level in that subgroup

Political ideology and party ID

Political ideology

Marked vs placebo: 2 of 12 cells · no small-sample flags
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Placebo50.5%48.2%46.5%Why independents are locked out — Gaby64.7%57.9%63%Why independents are locked out — MSNOW58.7%52.9%47.3%Why independents are locked out (21 s)50.4%50.7%56.8%Why independents are locked out (41 s)51.4%56.5%39.6%

Party ID

Marked vs placebo: 2 of 12 cells · no small-sample flags
Democrat
Independent or other
Republican
Placebo49.7%52.3%33.1%Why independents are locked out — Gaby55.9%70.8%44.5%Why independents are locked out — MSNOW51.5%56%52.6%Why independents are locked out (21 s)50.9%56%40.9%Why independents are locked out (41 s)50.4%52.5%41.9%

Education and 2024 presidential vote choice

Education

Marked vs placebo: 2 of 12 cells · no small-sample flags
High school or less
Some college
Bachelor's degree or higher
Placebo50.2%45.4%49.2%Why independents are locked out — Gaby59.9%60.1%63%Why independents are locked out — MSNOW57.1%54.1%51.5%Why independents are locked out (21 s)49.3%53.5%52.8%Why independents are locked out (41 s)52.1%43.4%51.7%

2024 presidential vote choice

Marked vs placebo: 4 of 16 cells · small-sample flag: Another candidate
The Democratic candidate
The Republican candidate
Another candidateSmall sample — all cells
I did not vote
Placebo46.3%47.2%56.7%51.7%Why independents are locked out — Gaby57.5%62.2%62.4%64.9%Why independents are locked out — MSNOW55.6%51.7%47.4%54%Why independents are locked out (21 s)57.7%53.2%49.2%44.6%Why independents are locked out (41 s)47.2%45.3%48.8%55.6%

Media trust

Marked vs placebo: 2 of 12 cells · no small-sample flags
Self-selected · asked before exposure · stated trust, not an outcome
A traditional TV or broadcast ad45.8%1,147share of the weighted sample
A short social video with a person speaking directly to camera30.7%770share of the weighted sample
A clip of a podcast or interview23.4%586share of the weighted sample
A traditional TV or broadcast ad
A short social video with a person speaking directly to camera
A clip of a podcast or interview
Placebo48.2%47.6%51.4%Why independents are locked out — Gaby64.8%62.1%53.3%Why independents are locked out — MSNOW54.7%56.3%50.1%Why independents are locked out (21 s)52.5%47.6%56.2%Why independents are locked out (41 s)47.2%51.9%53.8%

What it can and cannot establish

W1Wave 1

Supported by this study

  • Randomized comparison of each video arm with the placebo arm on stated ballot choice and comprehension.

What it cannot establish

  • Comparisons between video arms: each arm is tested only against the placebo.
  • A verdict from any arm or subgroup with fewer than 50 actual respondents: those comparisons are inconclusive by rule.

What “no measurable effect” means

Inconclusive means the comparison did not meet the criterion; it is not evidence of zero effect.

Weighted counts by arm

Placebo497
Why independents are locked out — Gaby485
Why independents are locked out — MSNOW518
Why independents are locked out (21 s)486
Why independents are locked out (41 s)518

Arm counts sum to the reported weighted total, 2,503.

Methodology notes

  • Counted: 2503 complete records, the latest per panel id, env development. Not counted: 0 complete(s) from another env, 600 earlier duplicate(s), 0 with an arm outside the test, 0 screenout(s); 3 start record(s) seen.
  • Raked to education, party, vote2024 in 3 iterations (largest remaining gap 7.1e-7); weights normalized to mean 1, range 0.306 to 4.627, capped at 5 (0 capped). Targets: Massachusetts general adults (18+), derived from the audience store by scripts/results/targets.mjs.
  • Weighting target, education (as raked): hs-or-less 31.2%, some-college 21.5%, bachelors-plus 47.3%. American Community Survey 5-year estimates (U.S. Census Bureau); education_4 @25, count; period 2020-01-01 to 2024-12-31; universe population 25+; proxy: population 25+; derivation audience-store. B15003 covers ages 25 and over; the store has no 18–24 education for the state, so the 25+ distribution stands in for adults 18+ and likely overstates bachelor's-or-higher for them.
  • Weighting target, party (as raked): democrat 37.3%, republican 14.6%, independent-other 48.2%. Cooperative Election Study common content 2020, 2022, 2024 (Harvard University); pid3 @25, 2024, pct (commonweight); period 2024-01-01 to 2024-12-31; universe adults 18+ (CES state respondents, commonweight); derivation audience-store. Party identification, a survey estimate: n 1119, margin of error up to ±4 points. The printed shares sum to 100.1 and are renormalized to 100. Identification, not enrollment: the state's party enrollment measures registration, a different construct on a different universe. 2024 is used to match the 2024 vote target (--party-year picks another); the store also holds 2023 (n 383, ±5) and 2025 (n 272, ±6.3).
  • Weighting target, vote2024 (as raked): democrat 37.4%, republican 22.0%, did-not-vote 38.2%, other 2.4%. Official ballot-measure results (state election offices); American Community Survey 5-year estimates (U.S. Census Bureau); presidential_vote @25, 2024, count; ACS age_bucket @25 (adults 18+); period 2024-11-05 to 2024-11-05; universe adults 18+; derivation audience-store. 3,512,930 ballots cast ÷ 5,679,875 adults 18+; "Did not vote" is the adults who cast no ballot (38.15%), non-citizen adults included. Blank presidential lines (a ballot cast, no presidential choice) count with "other" under the pax-entry map. Respondents over-report voting, so raking to the true non-vote share up-weights the non-voters a panel yields.
  • Declared but not asked by this test, so not raked: age, gender, race.
  • Levels are weighted percentages. Lifts are arm level minus placebo level, in points, with a margin of 1.645 standard errors. Each comparison is a two-sided two-proportion z-test with Kish effective sample sizes; detectable means p < 0.1 and at least 50 actual respondents in both groups.

Limitations

  • No multiplicity adjustment is applied across subgroups.

Source: pax-trinity-test-responses:open-primaries-1, computed 2026-10-29 (env development).