Parallax-produced35 s
01 · Danielle Allen
Largest reported lift estimate · 35s street interview
Ballot choice+18
Detectable
Comprehension+3
Inconclusive
n = 512 weightedWatch video
October 2026
Waves 1, 2 & 3|Ballot support, comprehension and media trust
| W1Wave 1 | W2Wave 2 | W3Wave 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | Massachusetts general adults — not a verified likely-voter sample | Massachusetts general adults — not verified likely voters | Respondents who completed the test, weighted to Massachusetts general adults (18+) |
| Fielded | October 2–7, 2026 | October 12–15, 2026 | October 29, 2026 |
| Sample | 3,600 respondents · 3,564 weighted | 2,400 respondents · 2,371 weighted | 2,464 respondents · 2,464 weighted |
| Videos | six treatment videos plus placebo | four treatment videos plus placebo | six treatment videos plus placebo |
| Control | Placebo video · 494 weighted | Placebo video · 443 weighted | Placebo video · 356 weighted |
| Threshold | 90% statistical threshold | Source’s 90% statistical criterion | 90% criterion (two-sided two-proportion test) |
No confidence intervals are shown: none are in the data.
Five of six videos showed detectable ballot choice differences; none showed detectable comprehension differences
1 · Support and understanding are different outcomes.
Five videos received the positive persuasion classification. All six overall comprehension results were “no measurable effect.” This study does not show why the two outcomes diverged.
2 · Danielle has the largest reported overall lift estimate.
Her +18–point estimate is higher than the other displayed estimates. The supplied results do not establish that every difference between videos is statistically significant.
3 · No format is shown to perform better in general.
Each video bundles its speaker, wording, duration, production and format. Comparing individual videos cannot isolate a format effect.
4 · Four of five Parallax-produced videos showed measurable positive lift.
Danielle, Littlewood, Donut and Dustin received Grow Progress’s positive persuasion classification versus placebo. Rodriguez did not show a measurable effect. Three Parallax videos had higher reported lift estimates than the official campaign ad; Dustin matched its rounded +11 estimate. Descriptive comparisons of reported estimates: statistical superiority over the official campaign ad has not been established.
Four of four videos showed detectable ballot support differences; three showed detectable comprehension differences
1 · All four videos showed detectable ballot-support differences.
Four treatment videos were compared with one placebo (47% Yes). Each meets the source’s 90% criterion.
2 · Three of four showed detectable comprehension differences.
Pahlow, DiZoglio and Matt Wilson meet the criterion. Green’s ≈ +5 pp is inconclusive — not evidence of no effect.
3 · The two outcomes order the videos differently.
Green has the largest displayed ballot-support estimate; Pahlow the largest displayed comprehension estimate. Neither is shown to differ statistically from the other videos.
4 · Whole videos were tested.
Each video bundles presenter, script, on-screen cards, format and length. Randomizing complete videos cannot isolate which element produced a difference.
Four of six videos showed detectable ballot support differences; one showed detectable comprehension differences
The card iteration
Limitation
Simulated respondents: the seeded demo run (scripts/results/seed-demo.mjs) walked the respondent flow, not a fielded panel. Every figure on this wave exercises the pipeline; none is a measurement.
Largest reported lift estimate · 35s street interview
Only negative comprehension estimate — not detectable
Positive support result; no detectable comprehension difference
Tied at +11 with Dustin
Tied at +11 with the official ad
Only video without a detectable support difference
Largest displayed comprehension estimate in Wave 2.
Detectable differences on both outcomes.
Detectable differences on both outcomes.
Largest displayed ballot-support estimate in Wave 2; comprehension inconclusive.
Frames supplied by the team
352 actual respondents
352 actual respondents
352 actual respondents
352 actual respondents
352 actual respondents
352 actual respondents
Results are versus placebo. A difference between two point estimates does not establish a statistically significant head-to-head difference.
Ballot choiceW1
Ballot supportW2
Ballot supportW3
ComprehensionW1
ComprehensionW2
ComprehensionW3
Which of the following best describes the main change the measure would make?
The 90% criterion (two-sided two-proportion test) is a statistical decision rule. It does not mean there is a 90% chance any particular person changed their mind.
Her highest levels: 75% vs 46% placebo among 18–34s and 73% vs 41% among 2022 non-voters. Significant in 29 of 36 subgroups — the safest broad default.
The only significant video among high school or less (72% vs 51%); 70% vs 42% in $0–$49K households.
Dustin (46%) and Rodriguez (44%) trail placebo with the high-school-or-less group.
Highest level of any video in each: 70% vs 50%, 69% vs 51% and 67% vs 45%.
The only two significant videos with 55+: Littlewood 62% and Danielle 60% vs a 46% placebo.
The official ad does nothing here (47%).
72% vs 50% placebo — the highest level of any video among parents.
Flat with non-parents (54% vs 46%, not significant).
Dustin 69% and Danielle 67% vs a 53% placebo — the only two significant videos in that group.
63% vs 44% among urban respondents and 62% vs 42% in $0–$49K households.
Not significant with suburban (57% vs 51%) or $50K–$99K (54% vs 50%).
Donut and the official ad are the only significant videos here, both 72% vs a 54% placebo.
60% vs 41% among 2024 non-voters, 63% vs 41% among 2022 non-voters and 66% vs 46% among 18–34s.
Keep away from 55+ (47% vs 46%).
No video is significant with either group. Best untested bets: Dustin (63% among Republicans) and Danielle (61% among conservatives).
Hold Rodriguez out of rotation — no measurable effect overall.
Significant = video vs placebo inside one subgroup at the 90% statistical threshold, not videos vs each other. 36 subgroups × six videos with no documented multiplicity adjustment, so some marks are likely chance.
The only significant video in each: 54% vs 41% placebo among 55+ and 61% vs 45% among high school or less. Significant in 24 of 38 subgroups — the broadest in Wave 2.
The only significant video among $100K+ (60% vs 48%); the highest level among 2024 non-voters (65% vs 31%).
Pahlow (56%) and Matt Wilson (55%) are also significant with non-voters.
75% vs 53% placebo — the highest level of any video in this group. Green (71%) is the only other significant video.
Among Black respondents: 44% vs 52%, not significant (small sample).
The only two significant videos: 61% and 63% vs a 50% placebo.
Pahlow (56%) and DiZoglio (57%) are not significant.
57% and 55% vs a 41% placebo — the only two significant videos.
DiZoglio (46%) and Matt Wilson (48%) sit near placebo.
69% and 71% vs a 46% placebo — the highest levels in any media-trust group. Green (63%) is also significant.
Self-selected group; describes stated trust, not a format effect.
The highest level in each: 65% vs 48%, 64% vs 49% and 60% vs 49%.
Leads by one point or less. Green is also significant in all three; Matt Wilson in the first two.
64% vs 40% placebo — the highest level. Matt Wilson (61%) and Green (62%) are also significant.
Turnout is self-reported.
Every video is significant: 55% to 63% vs a 38% placebo, the lowest party placebo level.
Matt Wilson is highest (63%).
No video is significant in any of these groups. Highest levels: Green at 63% among Democrats (vs 54%) and Republicans (vs 51%).
Placebo levels start higher here (51%–58% Yes).
Significant = video vs placebo inside one subgroup at the source’s 90% statistical criterion, not videos vs each other. 38 subgroups × four videos with no documented multiplicity adjustment, so some marks are likely chance.
Shares of respondents choosing each answer — not ballot support or persuasion results.
Shown to every arm after the video · as printed in the source
Supported by this study
What it cannot establish
What “no measurable effect” means
| Placebo | 356 |
| Danielle Allen | 348 |
| Dustin Cathcart | 347 |
| Jesse Littlewood | 347 |
| Paul Schilchtman | 365 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 325 |
| Ajayi Harris | 375 |
Arm counts sum to the reported weighted total, 2,464.
Source: pax-trinity-test-responses:ma-wave-3, computed 2026-10-29 (env development).
Seen in both waves